Understanding Stability in ECE
Even in the face of staffing shortages, rising costs and ongoing workforce challenges, many early childhood education (ECE) programs continue showing up for Milwaukee families. But while some programs are able to remain steady year after year, others struggle to stay open – creating instability that can be difficult to see in traditional data.
That’s where the Stability Project comes in.
In our first Stability Project brief, we introduced churn – a new metric designed to measure how often ECE programs are opening and closing across Milwaukee. That data revealed a level of movement and disruption that traditional program counts often fail to capture.
Now, we’re taking the next step.
To better understand which programs are able to persist despite ongoing challenges, Milwaukee Succeeds developed a second metric: the stability rate. While churn measures turnover, the stability rate measures consistency, helping us identify which programs remain open year after year and where long-term endurance exists within the ECE sector.
Together, these metrics offer a deeper look at the realities facing Milwaukee’s child care programs and the families that depend on them.
What is the Stability Rate?
Simply put, a stability rate measures consistency over time. In many fields, stability is used to track how many people, organizations or programs remain within a system over a set period – like how many students stay enrolled at a school or how many employees remain at a company over the course of a year.
For the Stability Project, our metric looks specifically at ECE programs that remain open for the entire calendar year. By focusing on programs that stay open throughout all 12 months, this metric offers a longer-term view of program stability and helps move beyond the one-time snapshots that have traditionally defined ECE data.
Paired with focus groups and PhotoVoice research, the stability metric helps us better understand what supports allow programs to stay open. With this knowledge in hand, we’ll be able to direct funding and resources where they’re needed most before programs are forced to close their doors for good.
What the Data Reveals
Over the past 10 years, Milwaukee’s ECE stability rate has ranged from 83% to 89%, meaning that in a typical year, about 8 or 9 out of every 10 programs remain open for the full calendar year.
Across the rest of Wisconsin, stability rates are consistently higher – ranging from 91% to 94%. In fact, the lowest stability rate in the rest of the state is still higher than Milwaukee’s highest. That difference points to a troubling reality: Programs in Milwaukee are experiencing more instability and less long-term consistency than programs elsewhere in Wisconsin.
“While stability rates for the state have generally remained fairly consistent (only fluctuating 3 percentage points), Milwaukee programs have had a greater range and consistently lower stability rates,” said Kristin Kappelman, Milwaukee Succeeds’ director of research.
Taken together, the data suggests that Milwaukee providers may be operating under greater levels of strain – making it harder for programs to remain open long term.
Why Stability Matters
For families, stable child care means reliability. It means that children can maintain the trusted relationships they’ve built with their teachers and caregivers. And it means that parents can relax, knowing that their child’s program will still exist next month – or next year.
But for providers, stability can be difficult to maintain. As pandemic-era ECE funding comes to a close, many programs are facing mounting financial pressures, staffing shortages and rising operational costs. That’s why understanding stability – and the factors that that contribute to it – matters now more than ever.
“We need to give these providers the resources they need to stabilize and focus on quality practices,” said Paula Drew, director of ECE policy and research at the Wisconsin Early Childhood Association and a member of the Stability Project advisory group. “This stability work can help policymakers consider preventative interventions rather than just reacting after capacity is already lost.”
The findings also provide valuable insight for organizations working to strengthen and sustain Milwaukee’s child care system.
“As the Greater Milwaukee Foundation thinks through how it can best support the sector, this data can help us focus in on the how and the where,” explained Dr. Milika Miller, the Foundation's vice president of operations.
Building a Complete Picture
The stability rate is the second of three metrics developed through the Stability Project, alongside churn and closure rates. Each metric measures a different aspect of movement and persistence within the ECE sector. Together, they help make hidden instability visible, providing advocates, policymakers and community leaders with better tools to understand what programs are experiencing – and what they need to survive.
