Tracking Milwaukee’s Child Care Closures
The closure of an early childhood education (ECE) program can change everything for a family. A parent may suddenly lose the child care they rely on, forcing them to leave the workforce. A child may lose their trusted teachers and daily routines. And educators who’ve spent years building a program may be forced to shut their doors for good.
These moments of disruption are happening across Milwaukee’s ECE sector – but until now, there hasn’t been a clear way to measure it.
Over the course of the Stability Project, Milwaukee Succeeds has worked to better understand what instability in ECE really looks like – and what it means for our city. First came churn, which measured the movement of programs opening and closing across Milwaukee. Then came stability, which examined the programs who’ve been able to remain open year after year despite ongoing challenges. Now, we’re looking at the most visible and immediate form of instability: program closures.
As the third and final metric in the Stability Project, the closure rate helps us better understand the scale of program loss across Milwaukee – and what those closures reveal about the health of our child care system.
What is the Closure Rate?
Typically, a closure rate measures the number of completions or resolutions that occur during a specific period of time. For the Stability Project, our closure rate measures how many ECE programs close during a calendar year.
By focusing specifically on programs that permanently shut their doors, this metric provides a clearer picture of instability within the ECE sector and where access to child care may be shrinking. Paired with focus groups and PhotoVoice research, the closure metric helps us better understand why programs are closing, what pressures providers are facing and what supports may have helped to keep their doors open.
What the Data Reveals
Over the past 10 years, Milwaukee’s ECE closure rate has ranged from 11% to 19%, meaning that in a typical year, at least 1 – if not 2 – out of every 10 programs closed during the calendar year. Across the rest of Wisconsin, closure rates are consistently lower, ranging from 9% to 14%.
Looking at the total number of closures over time adds another layer to the story. In Milwaukee, annual closures ranged from a low of 110 to a high of 246 programs – with 84% occurring in just 10 ZIP codes. This means that certain neighborhoods are experiencing far greater disruption than others.
That disruption is even more pronounced when looking at the types of programs that are closing.
“What was most concerning was that nearly three quarters of closures were family child care programs,” said Paula Drew, director of ECE policy and research at the Wisconsin Early Childhood Association and a member of the Stability Project advisory group. “These programs are most likely to serve infants, toddlers and families needing nontraditional hours, meaning closures disproportionately affect the care families already struggle most to find.”
Why Closures Matter
A program closure is more than a number on a chart. It’s the loss of a critical piece of infrastructure that keeps our businesses, our economy and our entire community running. But these closures don’t happen in isolation. They reflect years of pressure and mounting strain, including workforce shortages, rising operational costs and inadequate funding.
“With this information, we can start identifying where turnover is highest, what types of programs are most at risk and how we might intervene,” said Kristin Kappelman, Milwaukee Succeeds’ director of research.
By making these closures visible, Milwaukee Succeeds hopes to help identify where resources and interventions are needed most before more programs disappear.
Completing the Stability Picture
As the final metric in the Stability Project, the closure rate helps complete a broader picture of Milwaukee’s ECE sector. Together, these metrics offer a valuable look into how our child care system is functioning – from the movement of programs entering and leaving the field to the programs that persist and those that are ultimately forced to close.
“This work gives us a better picture of what providers are experiencing, the potential reasons programs may close and the kinds of support they might need to stay open,” explained Yimma Davila Castro, Milwaukee Succeeds’ ECE manager. “It also helps us think about where support and resources may be needed most.”
By turning hidden instability into measurable data, these metrics give advocates, policymakers and ECE champions a stronger foundation for action. Because when we can see the system clearly, we can finally start to change it.
